CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-01T13:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21824/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T07:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T05:13Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 58.3333%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 18.78 hour(s)
Difference: 1.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-10-03T12:18Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement